This paper investigates why Botswana’s resource-led growth model has produced persistently high income inequality despite decades of macroeconomic success. Using the Gini coefficient as the primary indicator of distributional outcomes, the study combines historical analysis with panel data evidence for four Southern African economies—Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, and Zimbabwe—over the period 1995–2020. The analysis addresses two central questions: whether natural resource dependence explains persistent inequality in Southern Africa, and why Botswana has not followed the Kuznets inverted-U trajectory that predicts declining inequality at higher income levels. Panel fixed-effects estimation indicates a marginally negative within-country association between income growth and inequality, while the mining share of GDP does not exhibit significant time-varying explanatory power. This result is interpreted as evidence that resource dependence functions primarily as a structural characteristic of the economy rather than as a short-run annual driver of inequality dynamics. A pooled quadratic Kuznets test yields marginal support for an inverted-U relationship with an implied turning point near USD 3,200, yet Botswana’s inequality remains persistently high despite most observations lying above this threshold. The findings suggest that Botswana’s inequality is best understood through structural features of its development model—particularly enclave-based mineral extraction, labor-market segmentation, and limited employment-intensive diversification. The study therefore challenges assumptions that sustained income growth alone will reduce inequality in resource-dependent economies and highlights the importance of structural transformation in achieving inclusive development.

JEL Classification: O15, O55, D63, Q33, C23