Abstract: Five decades of research on venture capital (VC) decision making have produced a rich but fragmented body of evidence on the criteria that shape the funding decision. We systematically review 75 empirical studies (1984–2025), organize the criteria they examine into an inductively derived taxonomy of 29 variables in eight clusters, and synthesize the evidence with a dual quantitative approach: a weight analysis computed over the full corpus and over its inferential-only subset, and a random-effects meta-analysis of 122 verified effect sizes from 40 studies. Ten variables survive a dual retention criterion. Human capital is consistently important, the largest venture-level effects belong to market size and product uniqueness ("the horse"). Above all, the single strongest predictor of funding is procedural: the investor's use of structured decision aids. By reconciling the jockey-versus-horse debate, these findings establish structured, bias-aware evaluation as the critical frontier for entrepreneurial finance.

Plain English Summary: Venture capitalists screen thousands of start-ups but fund very few, and research on how they make these choices has remained fragmented for fifty years. This study combines data from 75 empirical studies (1984–2025) into a single map of 29 investment criteria, statistically measuring what actually drives funding outcomes. We found that while a strong founding team, marked by experience, education, and balance is consistently important, the biggest venture-specific drivers of success are market size and product uniqueness. Surprisingly, the strongest overall predictor of a funding decision isn't a trait of the start-up at all: it's whether the investor uses formal scoring tools instead of relying solely on gut instinct. Furthermore, traits investors claim to value most, like founder passion, often turn out to be the weakest predictors of their actual choices. Ultimately, these findings help entrepreneurs focus on the right signals, encourage investors to adopt structured, bias-aware screening, and show policymakers exactly where funding inequalities are likely to emerge.

JEL Classification: G24, L26, M13, D81

Statements and Declarations

Funding: This work was supported by the Hellenic Foundation for Research and Innovation (H.F.R.I.) under the research project DESUS, which is implemented in the framework of H.F.R.I. call “3rd Call for H.F.R.I.’s Research Projects to Support Faculty Members & Researchers” (H.F.R.I. Project Number: 23669).